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Otter-BelleHavenMarina
Joined: 03 Nov 2003 Posts: 390 City/Region: Alexandria
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Posted: Thu May 05, 2005 6:48 pm Post subject: |
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And the headline in the Sea Lion Newspaper would be:
"Dinner and a Show at the Bonneville Dam on Thursday and Friday -- Bring the Kids!" _________________ Tom on Otter |
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rogerbum
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 5928 City/Region: Kenmore
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Posted: Thu May 05, 2005 10:17 pm Post subject: |
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gljjr wrote: | When the hunting ban was put on the marine mammals in the '70's there were something like 5,000- 10,000 sea lions on the west coast. Today there are over 330,000 from what I read a couple months ago. Tom is right. We need to start thinning the population. Man has historically been the major predator of seals and sea lions. |
Historically back to when?! We're relatively recent to this continent (white and "native" both). I hate to be the disagreeable one here, but it seems like we're a bit quick to blame the animals and assume that we can fix the problem by killing the sea lions. The only thing I'm fairly certain history shows is that mankind is pretty good at screwing things up...
While there is good science (http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/releases99/feb99/noaa99r107.html)
to show that Sea lion populations:
1) have increased about 3 fold since the 1970 and
2) can have a significant impact on the salmon population
It is not at all clear that the open season on sea lions proposed by some above is a good or sensible answer. I'd be willing to bet that if you go back 300 years, both the sea lion AND the salmon populations were quite a bit larger than today's. I'd also note that salmon populations lately (with the notable exception of 2005 springers on the Columbia) are generally higher than when I first moved to Seattle 13 years ago. It could be that the seal and sea lion increases are (at least partially) due to the increases in salmon and should be viewed as a good indicator that we are doing the right things. Without meddling by humans, predator-prey populations seem to have a good way of self regulating the relative sizes.
Just my two cents worth....
Roger on the SeaDNA _________________ Roger on Meant to be |
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starcrafttom
Joined: 07 Nov 2003 Posts: 7937 City/Region: marysville
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Posted: Mon May 09, 2005 12:49 pm Post subject: |
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Roger the point that you are missing is that the prey predator relation ship is never limited to two species. Man is a part of nature and a big part of the predator prey cycle. the professors say there was some thing like 400,000 natives in the oregon washington area before we got here. thats a lot of people to feed and they were not vegines ( spelling ) .. thats a lot of salmon and a lot of seals, whales, bear elk ...... _________________ Thomas J Elliott
http://tomsfishinggear.blogspot.com/ |
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rogerbum
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 5928 City/Region: Kenmore
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Posted: Mon May 09, 2005 4:17 pm Post subject: |
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starcrafttom wrote: | Roger the point that you are missing is that the prey predator relation ship is never limited to two species. Man is a part of nature and a big part of the predator prey cycle. the professors say there was some thing like 400,000 natives in the oregon washington area before we got here. thats a lot of people to feed and they were not vegines ( spelling ) .. thats a lot of salmon and a lot of seals, whales, bear elk ...... |
A yet, I'd still be willing to bet that there were more salmon, seals, whales, bears, elk, etc. when it was just natives hunting them.....
I'm well aware that the predator prey relationship is not just limited to two species.... However it is worth noting that for at least for harbor seals (for which there is good population survey data) it would appear that we are nearing the steady state carrying capacity of the environment. That is, the rate of population growth since 1970 is slowing to near zero for harbor seals. See http://www.afsc.noaa.gov/Quarterly/ond2002/ond02feature.pdf for the data and the mathematical fits to the growth curves. Hence my comment that predator/prey relationships seem to come into balance was based on a both an understanding of the problem and some understanding of the available data (yes, I am one of those professor-types - not in zoology but rather in microbiology). It is also worth noting that in addition to the ESA listing in the 1970's, the 1960's saw an end to state sponsored hunting to reduce the population to the supposed benefit of the commerical fishing fleet and both of these two things contributed to the recovery of the seal and sea lion populations.
My goal is to give some reasoned counter-point to the calls for culling the population so that we can all have more salmon for our fishing. The seals and sea lions are just now recovering to what the present day environment can carry and I think it's a bit premature to suggest that we should start culling the population. Don't get me wrong, I LOVE to fish and I LOVE to catch salmon. But if I was given the choice between "not fishing/catch and release only" or "killing seals and sea lions", I'd pick the former every time. I have a lot of options on what I can eat and where I can get it. Ditto for entertainment. The seals and seal lions don't have this luxury.
I would also claim that in the vast majority of instances in which mankind has thought it would be best for one species to kill or cull another, things haven't worked out well.
Roger on the SeaDNA |
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starcrafttom
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Posted: Mon May 09, 2005 5:57 pm Post subject: |
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I don’t think that any one is talking about the wholesale killing of the entire population of sea lions. Just the removal of problem seal lions that have made it a habit of destroying the endangered runs at their most vulnerable time, entering the hatcheries and fish ladders at dams. To say that it is natural for seals to eat fish by trapping them in fish ladders is just wrong. Maybe the seal lion population should have been kept in check and at a lower level until their food base has recovered. To put the seal before the cart or salmon is just miss management. This was the same mistake that was made by forest managers. They removed the fire protection before removing the fuel that causes damaging fires. The fuel should have been removed first, and then the forest can take care of its self. If the sea lion population is left unchecked before the food base can be provided we will see a crash of both species. Like I said before, doing nothing is not management. I wonder why the harbor seal population has leveled off while the bigger more aggressive competitor has grown??? oh come to a gathering so we can drink and argue. it drives my wife crazy.
p.s. I am also for the removel of nets in the rivers for the same reason. troll only fisheries are the way to go along with fish farms. |
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gljjr
Joined: 27 Jan 2005 Posts: 908 City/Region: Fall City
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Posted: Mon May 09, 2005 6:51 pm Post subject: |
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Roger,
You obviously have more training in this area than I do. However I still feel very strongly that Sea Lion populations are too high in the Columbia river area. This is causing far more endangered fish to be harvested than I would like to see. The biggest problem here is that the Sea Lions of that area have learned how easy it is to work the dams and "hog lines". I feel the ONLY way to keep this from completely wiping out the run of fish is to remove SOME sea lions. They are simply too smart to just relocate (they already proved that with Hershel). In addition to that we need to curtail commercial and sport harvest of these fish for this year at least.
Lets look at these numbers. There were reportedly 5,000 Sea Lions and Harber Seals from Bonneville Dam to the mouth of the Columbia as far back as the beginning of March or so. Now if each of them ate 1 Salmon a day for March and April that would be 30,000 fish. However most of them will eat 4 fish a day. That bumps the number up to about 120,000 fish for that 2 month period. Since the run was only supposed to be about 150,000 and the Commercial and Sport anglers have already pulled about 30,000 fish out of the system. What is left of the run?
As you stated the Seals need to eat to survive. But if they completely wipe out the run there won't be anything left to renew the run. I'm seriously concerned that we have gotten to that point with the Columbia river spingers. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think I'm off by much. And you are also right in that it would be better for the Seals to hit a balance in numbers to self regulate. Unfortunately that balance may just cause a drastic problem for the dwindling Salmon stocks.
Lets think on this too. There are basically only a few predators of Sea Lions. Sharks, Transient Orcas, and Man. The typical Pugest Sound Orca doesn't eat Seals or Sea Lions. The Sharks are actually pretty few and far between as well since we seem to have wiped them out to near extinction as well. And since the Transient Orcas are also in fairly small numbers that leaves us with the task of striking a balance that the food fish can sustain rather than let "nature" take its course.
In a perfect world we wouldn't have to worry about this as we wouldn't have eat salmon so we wouldn't continue to over harvest them. Thus we wouldn't worry about the Seals eating more than the fish population could sustain as the balance would be there to keep things in check. Unfortunately Man has screwed up the balance. They have wiped out the upper predators leaving the middle predators with no checks on the populations. Then we went and said that we were not going to kill them so we'll let their population grow to the point where they eat their preferred food to near extinction. When that has been accomplished it will finally dawn on people that we should have taken care of the problem long ago but were too shortsighted to realize the problem. _________________ Gary Johnson
KB7NFG |
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rogerbum
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 5928 City/Region: Kenmore
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Posted: Mon May 09, 2005 7:26 pm Post subject: |
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starcrafttom wrote: | I don’t think that any one is talking about the wholesale killing of the entire population of sea lions. Just the removal of problem seal lions that have made it a habit of destroying the endangered runs at their most vulnerable time, entering the hatcheries and fish ladders at dams. To say that it is natural for seals to eat fish by trapping them in fish ladders is just wrong. |
No argument there. I also think that there may be other approaches but in general, removing the problem seals and sea lions from the fish ladder entrances is a good idea. Previous data shows that a very small number of specific animals that learn to work the ladders can consume big numbers.
starcrafttom wrote: | Maybe the seal lion population should have been kept in check and at a lower level until their food base has recovered.
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In general, the fish returns in the early 2000's are better than they were in the 1980's. Not at every run, but many runs are starting to recover. This is in spite of increasing numbers of seals and sea lions. Tighter commercial regulations, some loss of fishing fleet (due to economics) and improved ocean survival rates have all contributed to this. I'd personally rather focus on restricting commercial catches or buying out the indian share as I think that will be a more effective management strategy.
starcrafttom wrote: | To put the seal before the cart or salmon is just miss management. This was the same mistake that was made by forest managers. They removed the fire protection before removing the fuel that causes damaging fires. The fuel should have been removed first, and then the forest can take care of its self. If the sea lion population is left unchecked before the food base can be provided we will see a crash of both species.
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I'm not seeing the analogy here with the fire management....
starcrafttom wrote: |
Like I said before, doing nothing is not management.
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I would argue that a lot is being done and that in fact fishing is better today than it was in the early 1990's. I would also agree that more could be done but I would start with 1) restricting commerical fishing, 2)trying to buy out the indian harvest 3)improving spawning habitat, 4)removing dams that can be removed and improving fish ladders and smolt passage 5) restricting access of sea lions to ladder entries (or removing or killing a limited number of animals that work these entries) 6) restricting sport fishing or changing sport fishing habits (maybe hog lines are not the best or maybe we should only fish above the dams so that sea lions don't get the easy access to fish on the line) and then (and only then) would I look at thinning the overall number seal and sea lions.
starcrafttom wrote: | I wonder why the harbor seal population has leveled off while the bigger more aggressive competitor has grown???
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It is likely that the sea lion growth rate is tapering off too - I just haven't found the data yet. The harbor seals seem to be a better studied population. Both populations were growing at a similar rate from 1970 on in what data I could find.
starcrafttom wrote: |
oh come to a gathering so we can drink and argue. it drives my wife crazy.
p.s. I am also for the removel of nets in the rivers for the same reason. troll only fisheries are the way to go along with fish farms. |
Drinking is always better than arguing and I find it best to argue first and drink second - arguments make more sense that way....
Best to all,
Roger on the SeaDNA |
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TyBoo
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Posted: Mon May 09, 2005 7:59 pm Post subject: |
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Some of the branded sea lions that have been spotted at B Dam in recent years are home ported in southern California. To control them lethally, it might take a nuke.
I think the reason the critters are worse this year may have something to do with that guy they elected governator down there.
We probably ought to cut the DFW guys a little slack on their efforts. They are trying to come up with ways that private folks can use, as well. Even if it were legal or ethical to blast the sea lions, I don't think I would want to be on the river if all the Thunderjet and Bayliner skippers were packing elephant guns. _________________ TyBoo Mike
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rogerbum
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 5928 City/Region: Kenmore
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Posted: Mon May 09, 2005 8:01 pm Post subject: |
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gljjr wrote: | Roger,
You obviously have more training in this area than I do. However I still feel very strongly that Sea Lion populations are too high in the Columbia river area. This is causing far more endangered fish to be harvested than I would like to see. The biggest problem here is that the Sea Lions of that area have learned how easy it is to work the dams and "hog lines". I feel the ONLY way to keep this from completely wiping out the run of fish is to remove SOME sea lions. They are simply too smart to just relocate (they already proved that with Hershel). In addition to that we need to curtail commercial and sport harvest of these fish for this year at least.
Lets look at these numbers. There were reportedly 5,000 Sea Lions and Harber Seals from Bonneville Dam to the mouth of the Columbia as far back as the beginning of March or so. Now if each of them ate 1 Salmon a day for March and April that would be 30,000 fish. However most of them will eat 4 fish a day. That bumps the number up to about 120,000 fish for that 2 month period. Since the run was only supposed to be about 150,000 and the Commercial and Sport anglers have already pulled about 30,000 fish out of the system. What is left of the run?
As you stated the Seals need to eat to survive. But if they completely wipe out the run there won't be anything left to renew the run. I'm seriously concerned that we have gotten to that point with the Columbia river spingers. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think I'm off by much. {remainder deleted in quote} |
Estimates of returns up river are based on a combination of previous returns and sampling in the ocean. The previous return data INCLUDES previous predation by seals and sea lions so the math you are doing is not quite right. That is you can only subtract the INCREASE in predation this year over recent previous years to get a sensible estimate of the impact on the run. I haven't seen that estimate of 5000 seals and sea lions in the river and at it's mouth before so I would like to know where that number came from to follow it up. Regardless though, the relevant number is how many more than last year? I think it is far too simplistic to attribute the decrease in this year's run to seal and seal lion population increases since the data I have been able to find indicates population growth rates of between 3 and 7% per year (on average - with "compound interest that translates into the 3-fold increase since the 70's).
Let's not forget that this year's rain and snow fall is WAY down relative to any recent year and that has a lot to do with the return. That is, the return is pushed back farther in time when not enough outflow has happened to draw the salmon in. I have been following the Bonneville fish counts VERY closely for the past many months. As of yesterday (Sun. May 8th), more than 51,000 fish have gone past the Bonneville dam - this is about 44% of the 10 year average for the same point in time. I have also plotted the return numbers to date for this year and the return numbers for the 10 year average and it would appear from the shapes of the curves, that this year's run is shifted about 20-23 days (late) relative to the historical average. If that interpretation of the data is correct, then one would expect to see the total run to exceed 100,000 fish over Bonneville dam by the end of June. However, estimates like this are difficult to make since this year's run is by an "outlier" relative to others and there isn't much to base the estimates on. In any event, you might infer from the above that the returns this year are not near as bad as the talk in March and April would indicate and might in fact be not too bad at all.
On a separate note, the peak of the 10 year average return is about April 19th. Hence, we might consider moving the C-Brat Cathlamet gathering back a bit for future years....
Roger on the SeaDNA |
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gljjr
Joined: 27 Jan 2005 Posts: 908 City/Region: Fall City
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Posted: Mon May 09, 2005 9:27 pm Post subject: |
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Roger,
Unfortunately I can't remember where I read it. But I have seen it more than once. I think I found it in a newspaper article on the low returns of fish for the Columbia this year.
I've also been told that the WDFW doesn't adjust their run predictions for the increased sea lion population. So their models seem to be very outdated to me. But since I don't have good data it is hard to figure this stuff out. |
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rogerbum
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 5928 City/Region: Kenmore
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Posted: Mon May 09, 2005 10:07 pm Post subject: |
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Gary,
Since the year-to-year increases in seal and sea lion populations are of order a few percent, not building that into the model probably doesn't affect the run predictions appreciably. There's enough error in the predictions from things we don't know or can't know (like weather) that the minor corrections to the prediction formulae probably wouldn't make a significant improvement the run predictions.
All,
Just for the hell of it, I posted a graph of the run counts for this year and the average of the past 10 years. I put it as the last photo in the SeaDNA album. The last couple of days of the run count have been low but a few days ago was a doozy (6000+ fish in one day!). I looking at the fish cam at Bonneville dam (http://www.nwp.usace.army.mil/op/b/fishcam.asp?rn=04-116) in another browser window and based on what I see right now, today's count will probably be pretty low too. Let keep our fingers crossed for better days in the coming weeks.... Our 2009 fishing season will require it....
Roger on the SeaDNA |
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gljjr
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Posted: Mon May 09, 2005 11:11 pm Post subject: |
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Nice graph! I hear ya on the continued returns. And I really hope they don't open it back up for some reason. It just wouldn't make sense to me to do that. |
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dogon dory
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Posted: Tue May 10, 2005 1:24 am Post subject: |
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Sorry, Folks - Post Deleted By Author
Last edited by dogon dory on Sat Mar 01, 2008 4:10 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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rogerbum
Joined: 21 Nov 2004 Posts: 5928 City/Region: Kenmore
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Posted: Tue May 10, 2005 9:34 am Post subject: |
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dogon dory wrote: | Is it just me or does anyone else see the irony of this whole discussion? We go on and on about nature, protecting the environment, what the natives did or didn't do 200 years ago, etc.
The reality of the whole situation is that we are talking about legally protected sea lions that have learned to utilize a man made damn to prey on hatchery raised salmon while the natives are too busy running their casino to give a crap. What does nature have to do with it ?
Science shows us that historically species come and go. Something alters the environment or another species becomes dominant etc. And life goes on. It is only in current times due to our sense of values that we have decided that the "balance of nature" should remain static. It is our sense of values that say that it is unnacceptable for species to become extinct. We act as if each and every species if lost will irrevocably alter the balance of the universe and all will be lost. {text clipped...}
And like someone mentioned earlier in this thread, mankind is part of nature. |
No offense taken - the topic started with sea lions but since you expanded it a bit to all species... <sorry>....
The big concern should not be individual species but the rapid increase in the rate of extinctions directly due to mankind's influence. In the long run, the fact that we are part of nature is precisely the concern. We appear to be living in the middle of another mass extinction of a scale that hasn't been seen on earth for about 65 Myrs. Maybe humans will someday get added to the list (although I don't know who would make the entry.... ) |
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dogon dory
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Posted: Tue May 10, 2005 11:32 am Post subject: |
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Sorry, Folks - Post Deleted By Author
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