Yellowstone Tremors

H

Hunkydory

Active member
This is the fourth day of earthquake tremors under Yellowstone Lake in Yellowstone National Park. The tremors are happening in the east side of the caldera and indicative of magma being on the move below the ground under the lake. The latest today are centered very close to being under the Bridge Bay Marina and Stevenson Island. Four days ago they started about six miles south of there.

Bill, would appreciate your perspective on this happening.

This is a link to a map showing the time and place of the earthquake swarms.
http://www.seis.utah.edu/req2webdir/rec ... stone.html
And this is a link to an article about the swarms.
http://chattahbox.com/science/2008/12/3 ... ake-swarm/

Is especially interesting to us due to our nearness to it, our love of Yellowstone and plans of renting a dock slip for this summer at Bridge Bay Marina.

Jay
 
Hunkydory":1dlp1nz5 said:
This is the fourth day of earthquake tremors under Yellowstone Lake in Yellowstone National Park. The tremors are happening in the east side of the caldera and indicative of magma being on the move below the ground under the lake. The latest today are centered very close to being under the Bridge Bay Marina and Stevenson Island. Four days ago they started about six miles south of there.

Bill, would appreciate your perspective on this happening.

This is a link to a map showing the time and place of the earthquake swarms.
http://www.seis.utah.edu/req2webdir/rec ... stone.html
And this is a link to an article about the swarms.
http://chattahbox.com/science/2008/12/3 ... ake-swarm/

Is especially interesting to us due to our nearness to it, our love of Yellowstone and plans of renting a dock slip for this summer at Bridge Bay Marina.

Jay
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while I am not Bill, whenever a volcano of this size shows this kind of activity, it is a reason to have some concern. Perhaps nothing will happen. Perhaps something will. This many earthquakes in this short of time is rarely a good thing. The next few days will tell the whole story no doubt. Alaska is looking better all time :)
 
In August of 1959, I was camping (sleeping on the ground) 50 miles from the epicenter of the famous 7.5 on the Richter Scale earthquake that triggered the massive landslide of the mountain that blocked the valley creating Quake Lake. (The location of this disaster was 25 miles from West Yellowstone). I had friends that had considered camping that night in the campground that was buried by the landslide that killed 28 people. (They had fortunately pushed on and spent the night elsewhere).

Everyone in our camp felt the earthquake except me as I slept soundly through it.

In 2002, we visited the visitors center at the landslide location and watched the seismograph needle record frequent tremors.....of course nothing like the 3.0 - 3.9 quakes that are currently being recording in Yellowstone Nat'l Park.

I'm also interested in "our own geologist" Bill on "Halcyon" to share his perspective of these current events.
 
T Bauer, appreciated your comments and am interested in most all comments on this subject was only asking Bill directly due to his own unigue knowledge of the subject and knowing he had mentored under David Love who was known as the Grand Ole Man of Rocky Mountain Geology.

If one is interested at all in this subject find a copy and read "Rising From the Plains" by John McPhee. This book is about the geology of mainly Wyoming and the geologist David Love with a lot of old Wyoming history added to the mix. Bill suggested I read this book last Summer while at the gathering on Yellowstone Lake due not only to it being a great read, but the coincidence of his mentoring under David Love and two of my sons mentoring in Geology and Anthropology under David Love's son Charlie Love.

If the caldera pops its top I think I'd rather be on the lake in the Hunkydory then Alaska :lol:

Jay
 
Hunkydory":itb51d1n said:
T Bauer, appreciated your comments and am interested in most all comments on this subject was only asking Bill directly due to his own unigue knowledge of the subject and knowing he had mentored under David Love who was known as the Grand Ole Man of Rocky Mountain Geology.

If one is interested at all in this subject find a copy and read "Rising From the Plains" by John McPhee. Bill suggested I read this book last Summer while at the gathering on Yellowstone Lake due not only to it being a great read, but the coincidence of his mentoring under David Love and two of my sons mentoring in Geology and Anthropology under David Love's son Charlie Love.

If the caldera pops its top I think I'd rather be on the lake in the Hunkydory then Alaska :lol:

Jay
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Jay,

It is not in anyone's best interest for this monster to become active. Maybe you'll get your wish and lake will melt soon. If it does, I stocking up Walmart with canned good for about 10 years.....
 
Hi Jay,

You know our love of the Yellowstone area. Seismic activity is nothing new at Yellowstone (I heard several times daily about "over 1,000 earthquakes each year in the Yellowstone area" :wink: ), but this is more significant. Mapping of the lake bottom has shown that there is plenty of activity under the lake (some say more geothermal activity than all the rest of Yellowstone combined), so I'm not surprised that any increase in activity would show up there initially.

I had NPS interpreters on the Lake Queen who told of the historic eruptions there and the fact that we are due again... sometime in the next 20-30 thousand years. There is evidence that the last major eruption scattered ash and debris over most of the North American continent, and deposited Heart Mountain over east of Cody! :shock: I'm thinking further is better than closer... if/when.

Best wishes,
Jim
 
T Bauer, will be real content to wait till May or June for the ice to melt. Big odds these earthquake swarms are just another something that will end up mainly intriguing the scientist, but earth movement in that area in resent years has been happening very fast in geological time, so I'll bet at the present its got there apt attention.

From the little I know if it does go off like it has in the past I'd rather go right up with it at the epicenter on the Hunkydory then wait for the cold or whatever to finally claim me cause in the unlikely event it did blow in the near future like it has in the past, 10 years of canned goods won't be near enough and though I know its plenty cold up there now, you could well be in the futures summer.

Jim, along with what you stated there was 3 feet of ash on the east coast and over 24 feet in Rock Springs Wyoming, which is over two hundred miles away. This would be literally a world without sunshine for way to long a period of time for me. Very doubtful that us humans could survive at all let alone in any resemblance to life as we know it. On the sunnier side, I've lived playing the odds most my life and the odds of this event causing me harm is such a long shot compared to just driving down a two lane highway that it's only interest not fear that motivates me in learning more and being involved in discussions about it.

Jay
 
Sorry, folks, your 'resident' geologist has been 'goofing off' sequestered in a cabin on the edge of Rocky Mountain National Park with heaps (literally) of family. We had no access to news media, and only a momentary period of access to the internet. So, we've been 'out of pocket.'

To begin with, the comments already made by other Brats are germane and the websites suggested are the best for up-to-date data on events at Yellowstone. For background, you might also want to peruse our posting from our month in Yellowstone aboard Halcyon last summer:
http://www.geocities.com/bill_fiero/yellowst.htm

The intensity of quakes and numbers of shocks are unusual in the recent seismic monitoring on the Park - however, such activity levels do not necessarily presage any violent surface activity. Elsewhere, higher activity levels are not always (or even often) followed by eruption. At this point it is critical to continue monitoring to determine if the earthquakes are indicating magma movement at depth, or increased local pressure, or slippage along a particular fault or region of faults. The events of the next month or so will be critical, and the analysis will hopefully give a better ability to predict.

There is a major zone of sub-lake north-south geothermal activity (mapped by the USGeol. Survey and by us, on our boat last summer) in the area of current earthquakes. Perhaps, the current 'swarm' is the result of release of pressure along that zone or perhaps uplift from geothermal pressure in the magma chamber with release along the linear fracture.

If I learn more, I'll sure relay it on to you. In the meantime, I wouldn't be concerned about docking at Bridge Bay Marina next summer - in fact, we might do that again.
 
Bill

Would be good if the TIME article link posted by Marty is the more accurate description of after events from a major Yellowstone Explosion of the caldera and if it is then TR Bauer and Jim are definitely right in Alaska or any place a good distance away being the better choice. What led me to my conclusion of preferring to be right there at the epicenter is many writings and quotes such as this, I've read over the years.

I know just the hyper web site name is enough to raise doubts to its accuracy, but I've read the same opinions shared in many other quotes too.

Quoted from: Armageddon Online - The Yellowstone Caldera & Super Volcano

"What would be the effect of an eruption?

Immediately before the eruption, there would be large earthquakes in the region. The ground would swell further with most of the area being uplifted. One earthquake would finally break the layer of rock that holds the magma in - and all the pressure the Earth can build up in 640,000 years would be unleashed in a cataclysmic event. Magma would be flung more than 50 kilometres into the atmosphere. Within a thousand kilometres virtually all life would be killed by falling ash, lava flows and the sheer explosive force of the eruption. Volcanic ash would cover places thousands of miles away. One thousand cubic kilometres of lava would pour out of the volcano itself, enough to coat the whole of the USA with a layer a few inches thick. The explosion would have a force 1000-2500 times that of Mount St. Helens. It would be the loudest noise heard by man for more than 75,000 years, the time of the last super volcano eruption. Within minutes of the eruption tens of thousands could be dead.

The long-term effects would be even more devastating. The thousands of cubic kilometres of ash that would shoot into the atmosphere could block out light from the sun, making global temperatures fall dramatically. This is called a nuclear winter. As during the Sumatra eruption a large percentage of the world's plant life would be killed by the ash and severe drop in temperature. Effects world wide would cause massive food shortages. If the temperatures decline by the 21 degrees they did after the Sumatra eruption the Yellowstone super volcano eruption could truly be an extinction level event.

Humans could be pushed to the edge of extinction. Anthropologists suggest it won't be the first time.

But well before such a calamity, warning flags will likely show up on the computers of geologists around the world who monitor an increasingly useful stream of satellite data. There have also been more pushes by scientists in the field to 'wake up' and devote more attention to this, it's truly startling."

This description seems compatible to me with your description of past events in the Yellowstone section in Halcyon Days.

I know in the past the Yellowstone hot spot has created varying conditions from the mild beautiful scenic conditions we have at the present to the tremendous explosion described above. In between there has been times of huge lava flows and much smaller explosions, so unless you can convince me otherwise I'm still of the opinion that in the event of another eruption such as happened 640,000 year ago and has happened twice before that at similar intervals I would still just as soon be sitting in the boat on the lake and go for the ride as deal more slowly with the after effects. I realize the more major quakes ect leading up to a 600,000 event would most likely make this a philosophical point only.

Am sure looking forward to putting the Hunkydory in the slip this spring at Bridge Bay and hopefully seeing El and your smiling faces too.

Jay
 
Jay, if what you just described were to occur, I'm thinking that we will no longer be concerned about what is happening on Wall Street or any other street. :roll:
 
Yes Dave, that thought on this subject has recently been put into book form. Read a book last year by CJ Box a so so Wyoming writer who's stories are depicted in local areas I know well. This one took place in Yellowstone Park and part of it dealt with a group of extreme environmentalist who had completely given up the cause and turned even more to drugs and booze, when they came to realize what could happen any day from the center piece of their idealism "Yellowstone National Park" made all their other concerns including global warming seem insignificant and no longer worth the effort.
 
Jay,

Give me directions to the lake, I am with you. Just before she blows I would probably catch and eat one of the wild cutthroat trout that they have in the lake. How sick is that? All joking aside, your point is well taken and I prefer how things are right now. I hope things quiet down.

Tim
 
Hunkydory":9dkeu7ys said:
If the caldera pops its top I think I'd rather be on the lake in the Hunkydory then Alaska :lol:
Jay
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Kind of like the "icon" Harry Truman, the 83 year old resident and owner of his Mount St. Helens Lodge located on the shore of Spirit Lake at the base of Mt. St. Helens. Truman died when the volcano erupted on 5/18/1980, burying him, his home, business, pink cadillac and 16 cats.
 
Jay and others interested:

The description Jay quoted, although dramatic, is generally accurate if the Yellowstone caldera lets loose once again.

Geologists rank volcanic eruptions by the VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index). This is based on the volume of volcanic material ejected, how high the ejecta is blasted, and how long the eruption continues. The scale goes from 0 to 8. An increase of 1 indicates a 10 times more powerful eruption. Mt. St. Helens was a 5.

During the last 450 my, there have been 47 eruptions of VEI–8 magnitude or above, of which 42 eruptions are known from the past 36 million years, but none within the last 10,000 years.

The caldera eruption at Yellowstone (640,000 years ago) was an 8 as was the earlier Huckleberry Ridge eruption in Yellowstone 2.2 million years ago.

Looking globally, 'only' 73,000 years ago, Mt. Toba in Sumatra blew its top (probably the biggest eruption in the past 25 my (this would have been a VEI of 8+, three times the size of of the Yellowstone eruptions.) This catastrophic eruption, and the resulting global climate change (drop of 3+ degrees Centigrade), wiped out most humans, according to recent DNA evidence. Human population was apparently reduced to a few tens of thousands. All humans today are closely related, descendants of those few survivors. Consequently we all share very similar DNA.

So, the odds of a major blast at Yellowstone in our lifetime, is mighty slim (not impossible, but as you said, look out driving to work - far more likely to have a calamity driving your car).

Now, more thoughts about the quake swarm of the past week in Yellowstone. As a generality, small quakes are reckoned by geologists as a good thing - they release pressure, building on a fault zone, in small increments preventing the buildup of massive pressure on a 'locked' fault. However, in some unusual cases, quakes are precursors to a bigger shock.

The recent quakes in Yellowstone have mostly been very shallow (although still within the magma chamber) - they probably aren't precursors since the rock at that depth is very hot and would probably yield to increased pressure by plastic deformation rather than lock and then snap. More likely, the quakes are the result of 'adjustments' within the magma chamber to the 'invasion' of water from the surface - hydrothermal 'burps.'

The geysers and hot springs of Yellowstone (many under the lake, and we show photos of some of those we spotted on our depth sounder last summer) result from this 'invasion' of water into the magma chamber. Sometimes this hydrothermal activity is explosive on the surface. Such 'explosions' have been observed since folks have been in Yellowstone. One area, at the north end of the lake, has been swelling, probably due to water 'invasion,' and could explode any time. Perhaps these recent quakes are related to that swelling area. Now we need to see more data to indicate whether that area (near Marys Bay) is swelling more.

If it blew it could be rough locally (tsunamis on the lake, hot steam suddenly venting) but would not have widespread affects.

So, from the info I have, not to worry -- odds are slim -- but it bears study and awareness.
 
Bill,

Thanks for your insights. However, if anything bad happens we are blaming you! And more importantly, Jay is going to be steamed if anything happens to his favorite lake. On a serious note, it hasn't rumbled since yesterday. I don't know if that is a good or a bad thing. Hopefully, things will settle down. Have a great weekend!

Tim
 
Bill,

Thanks for your input on the Yellowstone quakes. I wonder if, due to the many vents already in place in that area if there is probability of a pressure build up in the magnitude of even a VEI of 5. Seems that, like you were saying, with the access of that pressure to all those weakened faults or active vents, serious pressure would be released in considerably more minor "pop off" events. However, should a large hole open under the lake and all that water suddenly find its way into that magmal chamber, there would, I'm sure be a spectacular steam venting at least and could be epic explosion beyond proportion at worst.

Geologists rank volcanic eruptions by the VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index). This is based on the volume of volcanic material ejected, how high the ejecta is blasted, and how long the eruption continues. The scale goes from 0 to 8. An increase of 1 indicates a 10 times more powerful eruption. Mt. St. Helens was a 5.
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Having lived in Portland and spending considerable time in, on and around Mt St. Helens before during and after May 18, I would think I would prefer to be watching from afar to being on the lake at the time of a serious blowout.

Do you know the VEI scale of the eruption that caused Crater Lake, in SW Oregon? I believe it was Mt Mazama, another member of the Ring of Fire.

Harvey
SleepyC :moon
 
Harvey, just for sake of discussion and will appreciate Bill's correction if wrong the water working its way slowly into different areas like the area off Marys Bay is creating the likely hood of explosions close to the surface and fairly small in diameter. I've looked on the map at areas where this has occurred in the past and was with Bill and the rest of the group when we cruised over the Mary Bay creator looking at its dimensions and bubbles with the sounders. If any event most likely earthquake happened big enough to let large amounts of lake water contact the magma it would create the opposite of what you described. All of the Yellowstone Lake water would have not much more resistance against magma pressure if the base rock cracked underneath then me sitting on the Hunkdory. Again I may be wrong, but I think anything near a VEI 5 explosion would more than likely rip away magma containment rock and we would be in for the really big one.

I too have enjoyed touring the St Helens area in the before and after. My brother-in-law was logging on the east slope of the Mountain on the day before its eruption. What has amazed me most about that event is the rapid recovery from moon scape to present. Of course the ripping apart was much faster, but I wouldn't have dreamed the regeneration could be this quick.

And I sure agree with watching from a far an event like Mt St. Helens or even a burp such as the last one near Marys Bay, Though If I had been in Ole Harry's slippers with the life he had led and where he was at in it my choice would have been the same as his.

DaveS, sure can relate to your experiences during the big quake in l959. As a 11 year old I read everything I could get my hands on about it. The best was Life Magazine and when finally being able to travel to that area looked it over in detail. That and the 64 Alaska earthquake was the two most interesting to me events from afar during my youth.

Bill, sure appreciate and enjoy your input. Re read and enjoyed anew your Yellowstone write up from this summer. I feel fortunate to live so close and there by often able to enjoy the wonders of Yellowstone.

Jay
 
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