Is shutting down the economy worth it?

G

Gene&Mary

New member
There are many ways of answering that question. This is just one way and may be right or wrong.

One way the government has determined whether the implementation of a regulation is worth it is to perform a cost/benefit analysis. Is it worth the cost of requiring auto manufactures to install seat belts worth the benefit received in lives being saved. Is it worth the benefit received to require hazardous material labeling. In order to do the calculation the value of a human life must be determined.

When this was done by the government in 1982, the value of a human life was first set a $300,000 which was the average earnings of a person over their lifetime. This value resulted in the cost of requiring hazardous material labeling exceeding the benefit. This was of course contested with one argument being if the value of a human life was only earnings, then Bill Gates' life was worth more than yours or mine. There was therefore more that entered into determining value than just earnings. Other factors were entered into the equation which resulted in a value of $3M for a human life. Using this $3M value, the hazardous waste labeling regulation was enacted.

Currently the value of a human life as determined by the US government is $10M. Regarding the Covid 19 pandemic, the US government has estimated that by enacting social distancing/economic shutdown procedures 1M lives will be saved. Doing the cost/benefit analysis- 1M x 10M= $10T. The entire US GDP for 1 year is ~$20T.

I guess from a purely economic standpoint, it's to be determined whether shutting down the economy will result in a loss of more than half a year's GDP.
 
Went boating today across Rosario Strait, real nice day. Now that I've gotten the boating related stuff out of the way I can weigh in on the post:

I don't think it's either/or with shutting down the economy vs.the value of human life, or that that's how governments are necessarily thinking about it. Setting politics aside, I think there's near unanimity of government and citizenry re the need to reopen the economy, with individuals differing mainly on timing and degree. Of course outliers may advocate for an immediate end to distancing, or alternately keeping things fully shut down until a vaccine is available, but these are extreme positions IMO. Leaders are presumably closing down group activity (high risk of contagion) to assure hospital capacity isn't overwhelmed in their locality. Some areas have done this very successfully, one could argue too successfully, based on the numbers and projections they had available at the time of shutdown. Others judge their area to be at lower risk of contagion, or perhaps place a relatively higher value on individual rights vs. overall community safety.

I personally see it both ways: as a health care worker near the epicenter (UWMC Montlake) I'm glad we have been able to stay ahead of the curve and not get overwhelmed. But trust me it was very scary at first, especially as we rapidly ran out of PPE. As the father of a business owner son who has had to shut down his successful business to a trickle (yet still pay rent, utilities, etc.) I long for at least a measured return to free commerce, before more of his hard work is lost.

I'm hoping that by Mid May we can re-open business and healthcare with strict distancing and infection control guidelines and plenty of advance education. An example might be: for restaurants to re-open, an occupancy/sq. Ft ratio must be established; gloves, masks, and testing available for employees, and take-out encouraged. Maybe encourage plastic payment vs. cash? Maybe re-open lower risk businesses first, then add higher risk activities once we show we can sustain things? I presume our leaders are working on these details behind the scenes right now.

As far as placing a dollar value on human life...when I see that brought up in the COVID context it's usually by someone advocating to end social distancing by pointing out the high financial cost. Though I didn't get that sense from the OP here, I've found in general that it's not intended in the kindest or most helpful way, and it strikes me as a cynical unwillingness to endure personal cost and inconvenience for the sake of the whole. Just one person's opinion.
 
I would certainly value Bill Gates life more than my own. I mean, he was one of the people who made computers ubiquitous throughout the world. That has been a global society changing event. My contributions to society don't even register compared to that.

However, if it really came down to someone choosing their life over the life of a Bill Gates, when it came right down to the wire, most people would pick their own life over the life of a person they have never or are very unlikely to ever meet.
 
nordicstallion":2helrmir said:
I think that should be left up to each individual to decide on their death bed. Open everything up...or die!! Hmmm
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If you're already on your deathbed, then whether the economy opens or not is a moot point to you.

The question is more appropriate to currently healthy people with a predisposition to a bad outcome as the result of a corona virus infection. They are the ones that are going to be rolling the dice if the shelter in place guidance is relaxed.

I am all for land of the free and "this is 'Merica and I can do what I want" as long as the only person suffering the consequences of your actions is you. Once your interpretation of your rights starts negatively affecting others who are uninvolved is where I start to have a problem. In the case of the corona virus one person's decision not to follow the rules can literally have fatal results for someone else.

For instance, most people would have no problem stopping someone who walks into a WalMart and starts shooting a gun at random. But some people think that walking into a Walmart carrying the corona virus (whether they know it or not) without wearing PPE is ok because "No one is going to tell ME what to do or take my rights away!", even though the outcome of these two events could be similar. I.e. innocent people die.

Yes, the odds are very, very, low that any particular person will die. But someone(s) still could and who gets to decide who that's going to be? It probably shouldn't be some random person off the street who thinks not wearing a face mask is a personal or political statement.
 
I am all for land of the free and "this is 'Merica and I can do what I want" as long as the only person suffering the consequences of your actions is you. Once your interpretation of your rights starts negatively affecting others who are uninvolved is where I start to have a problem. In the case of the corona virus one person's decision not to follow the rules can literally have fatal results for someone else.
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Amen brother! That's the whole argument in a nut shell.

Shorthand might be (for the "Liberate" folks)....your rights end where mine begin.
 
No one is going to stop you if you want to hide in your house. If you want to stay away from others. If you want not go to dinner, shopping, fishing, you dont have to. But we, or more to the point the government, should not tell us that we cant do those thing if we wish. And closing so many businesses and not others just sticks of favoritism. I am a realtor and right now building homes is shut down??/ but if the home or apartment is low income housing ( government financed) then the health of the worker all of a sudden does not mean shit. If the project is being built by the Jay enlesses buddy that runs the YMCA for Washington state then its ok to build or if its the light rail then hey those workers are not going to catch it I guess.

You can go boating in washington state but you cant fish front he boat you are boating on>????? I can show homes but I can only have one person in the house at a time. I guess getting one person sick at a time is ok but not both of them?? Sorry but none of this makes any sense.

Sweden did not shut done anything and so far they are doing fine if not better then most other countries. Hell they are doing a lot better then Italy. https://www.google.com/search?q=swe.....69i57j0l7.6462j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
 
There is a very good article in the Washington Post today, unfortunately I think you need a subscription to read it. A nurse in Detroit explains what they are going through. At one point she was in charge of 26 patients on ventilators. Usually the max is 4 per nurse in a crisis. In the end, she explains that she and others walked off the job. I know that sounds like a horrible cop out, but you need to read the article to pass judgment. It sounds like her job turned out to be running from one alarm to another to remove the dead patient from the bed and sub in another.

We have been lucky so far. Other countries have definitely suffered more. It looks like Guayaquil, Ecuador is instituting a "Bring out your dead!" curbside corpse removal program. I don't know if their economy is still open, but I doubt that it matters.

Opening our economy sounds okay IF the numbers are falling and remains falling. If not, then it is "false economy" to tell everybody that the pandemic is over. Some would learn a hard lesson. Others simply can't learn.

I thought about "Typhoid Mary" the other day. Mary Mallon was an asymptomatic carrier of the bacteria. She walked around (actually worked as a cook) infecting others. She might have claimed that she had a Constitutional right to work or assemble or something. Governmental authorities saw otherwise. She was taken into custody several times and even brought a court case claiming she had a right to be free to work. She also argued that not everyone infected dies (only about 10% at the time). She was thought to have directly infected 51 people and who knows how many they infected. Only 3,000 people in NY died of typhoid one year that she was working as a cook for several families. She lost the lawsuit. So much for her Constitutional rights and economic interests versus public health.

A vaccine was developed in 1909, but for some reason it didn't work for Mary. A politician worked to free Mary. She was released from quarantine on the condition that she not work as a cook. She went to work as a cook at a hospital using an alias where within a few months several doctors, nurses, and patients were infected. At least two died. She was taken back into custody and died several decades later.

One person's right to work vs. 3,000 deaths? Two deaths? What if the worker doesn't know or understand infectious diseases or even denies the existence of viruses?

At best we are attempting mathematics with wavering numbers. We may have seen the worst of the economic damage or at least see the trajectory if the semi-quarantine stays in effect. I'm not sure that we have seen the worst of the health damage if the quarantine is lifted too soon.

Mark
 
To me the question is was the shut down done rationally. My answer is "NO"

These exact same problems now face us, as the economy has to ramp up again.

I am all for states rights, but some governors took it too far. There was a panic response. So many business could (and should) stay open with the proper social distancing and hygene precautions. What is the difference between a light fixture stare guitar store and Home Depot or Walmart. Some governors said "No boating', shut down boat manufacturing and marinas. Many industries were shut down as being "non essential". It should have been safety to the public, not an empiric "essential".

As we go back to work, I believe that at this point all should wear masks when within 10 feet of another employee (allows for some "slippage and the 6'). Dining can be with separation of tables, and even remote ordering. Masked waiters serving. (Don't forget that the virus is shed in the stool for a prolonged time. So personal hygiene and gloves for food handlers should be the norm.
Wipe down of all surfaces needs to be practiced.

Breaks in businesses can be staggered, and avoid group gatherings. Many meetings can be via computer even in the same business. I have become very active in Zoom recently. (how about Zoom for C Dory owners?)

Transportation remains a major issue: Airplanes, busses and trains (including subways) are essential for moving the workers in many cities. Ferry boats usually have enough room for distancing.

Cruise liners, resorts, theme parks are all toast for some time--at least until we have a vaccine.

Hospitals and clinics should resume normal elective proceedures. The COVID 19 patients kept totally isolated. Hospitals and many sub specialists are hurting with the shut down--more importantly Chemo therapy, diagnostic testing and needed treatments are being delayed and denied.

All medical (really all people) need to be very aware of masks, hand contact etc with each other, not only the patient. I saw many violations of this in our frequent hospital/clinic visits during the last few weeks.

As Tom points out--one person in a house is ridiculous for real estate.

Campgrounds, state & national parks, trails, etc all can be opened. We can get 75% of our economy back to work. If not, the "Great Depression (1930')" will seem like a picnic in the park!

We have new neighbors--they are young and have young children. There were 6 visiting cars there yesterday, a dozen kids and a dozen adults, all mixing as if there were no problem with the virus. This is where the break down occurs. People are just not aware or concerned.

We were (for the most part) as a nation able to endure several weeks of "isolation". but it appears that many don't have the "Grit" or discipline to take steps which will prevent spread of this virus. They are selfish and don't realize the risk to themselves. There are plenty of kids and healthy adults who die with the COVID19

Everyone needs to be aware, and take precautions.
 
I agree with Bob's response. Tom, I believe you were looking at old data, and Sweden is now suffering the consequences. None the less, from another more recent article:

-Part of that approach relies on having access to one of the world’s best-functioning health-care systems. At no stage did Sweden see a real shortage of medical equipment or hospital capacity, and tents set up as emergency care facilities around the country have mostly remained empty. -

Unfortunately, our health care system isn't exactly the best, and the fact is the current guy squatting in the white house delayed reacting, and still isn't exactly with the program advised by the experts. (He's too busy riling up the protestors to liberate their states....) We can argue politics all day long, but until the president starts working with the states to get the necessary equipment and stuff, and supporting the advice of the experts, rather than twitting bullshit, conspiracies and hawking unproven medications, the divisiveness will continue to fuel the virus rather than snuff it out. There are many many posts on Face Book from those in the medical field that work on a daily basis with those dying in their care, and others that have managed to beat the virus while becoming almost deathly ill! My point is, this is a deadly virus, and not like the flu. We do need to get life and the economy rolling again, but individually we need to own up to some responsibilities.
 
Marco Flamingo":34pr8s18 said:
Guayaquil, Ecuador is instituting a "Bring out your dead!" curbside corpse removal program.

Mark
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We missed this by a couple of days. Last month was when the local city had a "pick up anything day". Now they are back to charging an extra fee.
 
First keep your political views off the forums. There is "blame" enough in both political parties and at all levels.

Second, Sweden has a 10 fold death toll per cases related to the other Scandinavian countries. USA has 123 deaths per million and Sweden has 153 deaths per million.

As to the US medical: response it has varied for a number of different factors, many are failures of the society, not of the medical system. We have had concentrated areas of deaths and rates of infection. Put the blame where you want--but look at the stats very carefully, and understand the reasons for the concentration of cases.
 
I suppose its a little like the difference between the person who plays Russian roulette picking one of three hand grenades (2 dummy, one live) while alone at sea in their boat (likely putting only themselves at risk) and the same person who plays Russian roulette with the same three grenades but while moored at the Friday Harbor CBGT, potentially harming many others. In case one, if it floats (or sinks) your boat, go for it, in case two it seems a little selfish, putting one's own "rights" (chest thumping here) against the well being of others.
 
I hope the re-opening is done in a logical, consistent manner based on evidence that it will safe to do so rather than what someone feels in their head or gut.


BTW At 73 and having asthma, I'm not willing to lose my life so we can open sooner, unlike some other person postulated recently.

Our schools closed for the rest of the year. Think if they had gone back and school kids started dying left and right! :shock:

Yes, I've got cabin fever, I just shot 6 holes in my freezer. Jimmy Buffet. :D
 
Isn't covid already going to have a lower cost effect on social security and Medicare cost to the US with more older folks kicking off earlier than the bean counters had planned. Just a thought in weighing the cost benefit to the US treasury.
We are going nuts with a brand new boat that hasn't hit the water yet!
However I am getting many upgrades installed.
 
Nancy and Bud":5nzav5wm said:
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This post & the one you did before reminds me of all the other times grandma in her wheel chair was being sent off the cliff & oh the starving children. Now poverty is ok & death from that seems much preferred to a virus. Many of us who have had to struggle through loss of employment know the feeling of the wolf at the door & the family needing the lost security. JoLee who’s immune system is suppressed & I at 72 & many like us would gladly risk our own lives as this point if it meant allowing the millions of young who are now facing the wolf to return to their normal tough routine. Most if not all the commentary here comes from those who are presently financially well off, only indirectly affected & easily remain home while self distancing, unlike the millions who have lost their jobs already & the millions more who will do so if it continues. The misery & deaths from this in the long run may well out do what is presently projected for this virus. This just seems to me to be somewhat self serving, especially when you then project the self serving thought on to those in much rougher condition wanting to return to work.

I’m all for hygiene precautions & manageable social distancing, but at this point keeping non essential businesses down & arbitrary nonsensical restrictions on people movement is not helping the cure being worse than the virus.

A bright note is If it actually turns out that the death rate for the COV19 virus is .1 % or 1 death to 1000 persons being infected as several of first sets of antibody testing is seeming to indicate.

Jay
 
Nancy and Bud":1aej8km3 said:
I hope the re-opening is done in a logical, consistent manner based on evidence that it will safe to do so rather than what someone feels in their head or gut.


BTW At 73 and having asthma, I'm not willing to lose my life so we can open sooner, unlike some other person postulated recently.

Our schools closed for the rest of the year. Think if they had gone back and school kids started dying left and right! :shock:

Yes, I've got cabin fever, I just shot 6 holes in my freezer. Jimmy Buffet. :D
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Reasonable people can differ. If you disagree with the first sentence of my post, then the best we can do is to agree to disagree.

The second post was humor. Perhaps I should have notated it with JK so that everyone would understand it wasn't to be taken seriously. Had nothing to do with the consequences of the current restrictions on employment.

I have nothing more to say on the subject.
 
Unfortunately, our health care system isn't exactly the best, and the fact is the current guy squatting in the white house delayed reacting, and still isn't exactly with the program advised by the experts.
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Herein lies a greater problem than the virus itself... political prejudice applied to public policy. Clouds our judgement. Keeps us stuck in the problem. Hinders the pivot to a solution. (I would also include prejudiced remarks which favor Mr. Trump).

All this talk about "science" and "experts", when the scientists and experts themselves don't agree? Here in WA State, vaping shops (which health experts say contribute to serious lung damage) have been deemed "essential" by other experts in State gov't. Recreational pot shops too! News flash: Sweden's "experts" are apparently in sync with President trump regarding the wisdom of quarantine rules! I'm confused, who does that leave us to criticize? Sweden is wise but Trump is a fool on the selfsame policy? And so many glowing reports about the health care systems in other countries made by (expert) folks who have never themselves used the HC systems in those countries. I have a dear friend from Sweden who has a drastically different view of his country's HC system, where one can die waiting for an important but rationed surgery. OK end of rant.

For Dr. Bob: I found your post to be wise and insightful as always. But re-starting elective hospital procedures is still problematic if a rebound surge happens because the COVID+ patients need to be in negative pressure ventilation rooms, which are the same rooms needed by our most critically ill patients: stem cell transplants, heme/onc treatment and recovery, heart/lung transplants, etc. Very hard to keep them completely isolated because these rooms go somewhat by floors. That's our hospital, others are different of course. (Interesting to note some anecdotal evidence indicating patients with reduced immune systems but not neutropenic can survive a COVID infection, maybe because their immune systems don't (or rather can't) storm in reaction to the infection. I've had a heart transplant Pt. and heard of a stem cell transplant Pt. recover! Very unscientific but still interesting.)

Luckily our experts at UW health metrics are giving a conditional go ahead to begin opening up commerce in WA State by Mid-May. Good thing they aren't listening to our other local HC expert and centi-billionaire Bill Gates. He feels it would be wisest to keep things shut down for the rest of the year, and apparently his mansion is well-provisioned for just that. He hasn't offered to pay anyone else's bills however.
 
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